GIFT Nifty Rises 119 Points signals recovery after Sensex crash, but will markets rebound on Thursday?
After witnessing the biggest single-day fall in more than three months, Indian equity markets may be heading for a positive start on Thursday. GIFT Nifty was trading higher in the evening session, offering some relief to investors after Wednesday’s sharp sell-off triggered by rising geopolitical tensions and a surge in crude oil prices.
However, market experts caution that while the early signals are encouraging, volatility is likely to remain high as global investors continue to monitor developments in the US-Iran conflict.
GIFT Nifty Rises indicates a positive opening for July 9
Despite Wednesday’s steep correction, the mood improved slightly in the post-market session.
At 5:40 p.m. on July 8, GIFT Nifty was trading 119 points, or 0.5%, higher at 23,940.50.
The gains suggest that Indian markets could open in positive territory on Thursday if global sentiment remains stable overnight.
However, GIFT Nifty only reflects early market expectations and actual opening levels may change depending on overnight developments in global markets.
Track Live : GIFT Nifty Live – Today Price, Chart, Timings and Nifty Opening Signal
GIFT Nifty Today: Positive recovery signals a gap-up opening after Wednesday’s sharp sell-off
After Wednesday’s nearly 2% decline in benchmark indices, GIFT Nifty Futures is indicating a positive start for Thursday’s session, although global cues remain mixed.
GIFT Nifty indicates a gap-up opening
- GIFT Nifty Futures: 23,986.50 (+108.50 points, +0.45%)
- Latest Nifty July Futures: 23,892.70
- Implied Nifty opening: +93.8 to +97.3 points
- Expected opening: Gap-up
The implied gap is calculated as:
23,990 – 23,892.70 = +97.30 points
A gap-up of around 95-100 points typically suggests a moderately positive opening, although the opening trend can quickly change depending on global developments and early institutional flows.
Global markets remain focused on the Middle East
Investor attention remains firmly on geopolitical developments.
Global markets turned volatile after Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “a waste of time” following US strikes on Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The renewed tensions pushed Brent crude close to $78 per barrel, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%. The US dollar traded mixed, and investors continued to reassess risks linked to global energy supplies.
For India, sustained higher crude oil prices remain a major concern because the country imports most of its oil requirements.
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What does this mean after Wednesday’s crash?
On Wednesday, Indian equities witnessed heavy selling as:
- Sensex plunged over 1,650 points
- Nifty slipped below 24,000
- Banking and financial stocks led the decline
- Investors reacted to renewed geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran and higher crude oil prices
The positive indication from GIFT Nifty suggests traders may attempt a relief rebound after the sharp correction.
Global cues remain mixed
US Markets
- Dow Jones: -0.25%
- Nasdaq Futures: -0.75%
- S&P 500 Futures: -0.57%
Europe
- DAX: -1.80%
- CAC 40: -1.67%
- FTSE 100: -0.91%
Asia
- Hang Seng: +2.99%
- Shanghai Composite: -0.49%
- Nikkei 225: -2.11%
While Asian markets offered mixed signals, weakness in US futures and European indices suggests investors remain cautious over geopolitical developments and energy prices.
What futures data indicates
The near-month Nifty futures contract settled at:
- Price: 23,892.70
- Change: -547.60 points (-2.24%)
Meanwhile, derivatives positioning remained active:
- Open Interest: 1.99 crore contracts
- OI Change: +18.00 lakh contracts (+10%)
- Volume: 79.01 lakh contracts
The sharp rise in open interest alongside a steep fall in prices points to fresh short positions being built, indicating traders remain cautious despite the expected gap-up opening.
Here’s what happened today and why traders reacted
Dalal Street came under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran was effectively “over,” reigniting concerns over geopolitical stability in the Middle East.
The comments pushed Brent crude oil prices sharply higher, hurting investor sentiment across global equity markets.
The Nifty 50 plunged 2.12% to close at 23,882.05, while the BSE Sensex dropped 2.15% to 76,503.60, marking the benchmark indices’ worst single-day performance in more than three months.
The sell-off was broad-based as investors booked profits amid fears that higher oil prices could increase inflation, weaken corporate earnings and slow economic growth.
Technical charts suggest volatility is far from over
According to Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking, the Nifty has weakened technically after breaking below an important support zone.
“Technically, the Nifty has slipped decisively below the key support zone of 24,000–24,150 and fallen beneath its major moving averages, weakening the near-term technical structure. The next crucial support is placed in the 23,650–23,800 zone, while any rebound is likely to face stiff resistance in the 24,150–24,300 region.”
He added that rising volatility calls for a cautious and stock-specific approach until there is greater clarity on geopolitical developments.
Key support and resistance levels for Nifty
According to Bajaj Broking Research, Wednesday’s sharp decline has altered the short-term market structure.
The brokerage noted that the Nifty formed a strong bearish candle after breaking below the important support area of 24,250 before testing 23,800 during intraday trade.
Analysts believe:
- Immediate support: 23,800
- Next support: 23,500–23,600 (if 23,800 breaks)
- Resistance zone: 24,150–24,350
- Near-term bias: Negative below 24,350
A sustained move above resistance could improve sentiment, while a break below support may trigger another round of selling.
What should investors expect on Thursday?
Although GIFT Nifty points to a positive start, market direction will largely depend on overnight global cues, crude oil prices and developments in the Middle East.
If geopolitical tensions ease and crude prices stabilise, investors may see some recovery after Wednesday’s steep correction. However, any fresh escalation could keep volatility elevated and limit upside.
For traders, experts suggest maintaining strict stop-losses and avoiding aggressive leveraged positions until volatility cools. Long-term investors, meanwhile, may focus on fundamentally strong companies while keeping an eye on upcoming quarterly earnings, which are expected to become the next major trigger for the market.
With GIFT Nifty showing early signs of recovery, Thursday’s opening will be closely watched to determine whether the rebound has enough strength to sustain or if Wednesday’s sell-off was the beginning of a broader correction.
