MCX Commodity Traders: What Weak US Jobs Data Means for Gold and Silver
Will the FOMC Minutes Decide the Next Move for Commodity Markets?
Commodity markets enter the new week with renewed optimism after weaker-than-expected US employment data sharply reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.
Gold, silver and risk assets rallied, while the US dollar weakened significantly. However, investors now face an important question: Can the rebound continue, or will the upcoming FOMC minutes change market sentiment once again?
The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on July 8 is expected to be the biggest trigger for commodity markets next week.
MCX Commodity : Weak US Jobs Report Changed the Market Narrative
The biggest market-moving event last week was the disappointing US June employment report.
The US economy added only 57,000 jobs, far below market expectations of 115,000. Although the unemployment rate eased to 4.2%, the decline was mainly due to lower labour force participation rather than stronger hiring.
The weaker labour market data reduced expectations of another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
Markets now estimate only about an 18% probability of a July rate increase, compared with nearly 30% earlier in the week. Expectations for another rate hike have also shifted towards October.
The weaker outlook pushed the US Dollar Index to a two-week low near 100.55, while Treasury yields also declined, supporting precious metals and broader risk assets.
Commodities Outlook for Next Week
- FOMC minutes (July 8) will be the key market trigger, offering clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
- Gold & Silver: Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data boosted precious metals as expectations for further Fed tightening eased, though the rally remains dependent on upcoming inflation data.
- Base Metals: Copper and zinc stayed resilient, while aluminium remained under pressure. Traders are watching whether the recent rebound develops into a sustained trend or proves to be a temporary relief rally.
- Crude Oil: Brent and WTI stabilized after recent volatility as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improved, but geopolitical risks and potential higher transit costs remain key concerns.
- Market Focus: Traders are expected to avoid aggressive positions ahead of next week’s U.S. CPI report, with the FOMC minutes likely to set the near-term direction for commodities.
MCX iCOMDEX Indices
Index Performance
- Index Value: 34,458.07
- Change: +1.26% â–²
Intraday Chart
- Trading session from approximately 09:30 to 21:30 IST
- Day’s low shown near 34,027.74
Market Activity Time: 23:29 Date: 03 Jul 2026
Track Live : MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE OF INDIA
| Commodity | Contract | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATURALGAS | 28JUL2026 | 310.90 | +0.16% |
| ZINC | 31JUL2026 | 366.90 | +0.07% |
| CRUDEOIL | 20JUL2026 | 6572.00 | +0.06% |
| SILVER | 04SEP2026 | 237499.00 | +0.04% |
| GOLD | 05AUG2026 | 147365.00 | −0.01% |
| COPPER | 31JUL2026 | 1284.40 | −0.03% |
| LEAD | 31JUL2026 | 198.90 | −0.13% |
Market Snapshot
- Bullion index gained 1.26%, indicating strength in the bullion segment.
- Top gainer: Natural Gas (+0.16%).
- Other gainers: Zinc (+0.07%), Crude Oil (+0.06%), Silver (+0.04%).
- Decliners: Gold (-0.01%), Copper (-0.03%), Lead (-0.13%).
Gold and Silver Shine as Fed Rate Expectations Ease
Gold and silver recorded their strongest weekly gains in nearly a month as investors shifted towards safe-haven assets.
Spot gold climbed close to $4,200 per ounce before ending the week around $4,174, gaining nearly 2%.
Silver outperformed, rising more than 6% to approach $63 per ounce.
Apart from a weaker dollar, gold also received support after the World Gold Council reported that central banks increased gold reserves for the second consecutive month in May, with Poland and China leading purchases.
Despite the bullish momentum, traders remain cautious as upcoming inflation data and the FOMC minutes could reshape interest rate expectations.
Read More : India’s Next Bull Run: Rupee Stability, Falling Crude Oil And Rising SIPs Align
MCX Gold Technical Outlook Signals Improving Momentum
Domestic gold prices also strengthened during the week.
MCX Gold futures settled at ₹1,47,378 per 10 grams, gaining 1.11% after breaking above a key descending trendline that had been in place since early June.
The contract also closed above its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at ₹1,45,558, indicating improving bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is seen around ₹1,52,358, followed by ₹1,54,134.
On the downside, ₹1,45,000 remains the first support, while ₹1,40,450 is considered the major support level. A break below this zone could weaken the current bullish outlook.
Global Economic Calendar – July 2026 (Key Events to Watch)
| Date | Key Economic Events (IST) | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| July 7 (Tue) | US Trade Balance, 🇨🇳 China Forex Reserves | Dollar, commodities |
| July 8 (Wed) | FOMC Minutes, API & EIA Crude Oil Inventories | Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Dollar |
| July 9 (Thu) | China CPI & PPI, 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims | Metals, global demand |
| July 14 (Tue) | US Core CPI, 🇯🇵 Japan Industrial Output | Inflation, Fed outlook, Gold |
| July 15 (Wed) | API Crude Stock, 🇪🇺 Industrial Production | Energy & industrial metals |
| July 16 (Thu) | Trade Balance, 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims | Dollar, equities |
| July 17 (Fri) | Housing Starts, Industrial Production | Economic growth outlook |
| July 21–24 | UK Jobs, EU ZEW Survey, Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales | Global growth signals |
| July 27 (Mon) | Industrial Profits, 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders | Manufacturing demand |
| July 28 (Tue) | Consumer Confidence | Consumer spending outlook |
| July 29 (Wed) | API & EIA Weekly Crude Stocks | Oil price direction |
| July 30 (Thu) | Q2 GDP, Consumption, Jobless Claims, 🇪🇺 GDP | Major macro event for global markets |
| July 31 (Fri) | Manufacturing PMI, 🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate | Manufacturing & commodity demand |
Top Market Triggers in July
- July 8: FOMC Minutes – Interest rate outlook.
- July 14: US CPI – Inflation and Fed expectations.
- July 29–30: Fed meeting and US Q2 GDP – Key drivers for the dollar, gold, crude oil and global equities.
Base Metals Deliver Mixed Performance Ahead of Key Economic Data
Base metals ended the week with mixed performances.
Copper gained modestly as softer US economic data and tightening trade flows supported prices ahead of the US Commerce Department’s review of refined copper imports.
Zinc also remained firm because of continued supply constraints and concentrate shortages.
Aluminium, however, declined more than 3% after shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz improved and production increased in China and Indonesia.
The coming week will determine whether the recent recovery in industrial metals evolves into a sustained uptrend or remains a temporary relief rally.
Crude Oil Stabilises as Middle East Supply Risks Ease
Crude oil prices found stability after months of sharp volatility.
WTI crude ended the week near $69 per barrel, while Brent crude closed around $72 per barrel.
Improving tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz helped ease supply concerns. Daily oil flows through the strategic route have recovered above 10 million barrels, supported by increased naval security.
Meanwhile, Qatar confirmed progress in regional diplomatic discussions, although disagreements regarding Hormuz sovereignty and Iranian financial assets remain unresolved.
Iran has also indicated that it plans to introduce transit service fees for ships using the Strait from mid-August, a development that could increase shipping costs if implemented.
MCX Top Gainers As on: 03 Jul 2026 – 23:51 IST
| Commodity | Expiry Date | Close | LTP | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SILVERM | 31AUG2026 | 236,105.00 | 239,953.00 | +3,848.00 | +1.63% |
| MENTHAOIL | 31JUL2026 | 1,108.80 | 1,116.00 | +7.20 | +0.65% |
| NATURALGAS | 28JUL2026 | 310.40 | 310.90 | +0.50 | +0.16% |
| NATGASMINI | 28JUL2026 | 310.30 | 310.80 | +0.50 | +0.16% |
| ELECDMBL | 30JUL2026 | 4,335.00 | 4,340.00 | +5.00 | +0.12% |
| ZINCMINI | 31JUL2026 | 366.60 | 366.90 | +0.30 | +0.08% |
| GOLDGUINEA | 31JUL2026 | 118,567.00 | 118,649.00 | +82.00 | +0.07% |
| ZINC | 31JUL2026 | 366.65 | 366.90 | +0.25 | +0.07% |
| CRUDEOIL | 20JUL2026 | 6,568.00 | 6,572.00 | +4.00 | +0.06% |
| GOLDTEN | 31JUL2026 | 147,510.00 | 147,595.00 | +85.00 | +0.06% |
MCX Top Losers As on: 03 Jul 2026 – 23:51 IST
| Commodity | Expiry Date | Close | LTP | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICKEL | 15JUL2026 | 1,573.70 | 1,570.00 | -3.70 | -0.24% |
| SILVER100 | 31JUL2026 | 2,337.00 | 2,332.00 | -5.00 | -0.21% |
| LEAD | 31JUL2026 | 199.15 | 198.90 | -0.25 | -0.13% |
| CRUDEOILM | 20JUL2026 | 6,568.00 | 6,565.00 | -3.00 | -0.05% |
| COPPER | 31JUL2026 | 1,284.80 | 1,284.40 | -0.40 | -0.03% |
| GOLD | 05AUG2026 | 147,378.00 | 147,365.00 | -13.00 | -0.01% |
Here’s What Happened Today and Why Traders Reacted
Commodity traders reacted positively after weaker US employment data reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates immediately.
The falling dollar, lower Treasury yields and improving expectations of stable monetary policy boosted gold, silver and other rate-sensitive assets.
However, traders avoided taking aggressive positions ahead of the July 8 FOMC minutes, which could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
What Could Move Commodity Markets Next Week?
The biggest event for investors will be the FOMC minutes, which could reveal how divided Federal Reserve officials remain over future interest rate decisions.
Markets will also monitor weekly US jobless claims, although attention is already shifting towards the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to be the next major catalyst for commodity prices.
A dovish tone from the Fed could extend gains in gold and silver, while stronger inflation signals may revive dollar strength and pressure precious metals.
What Does This Mean for Traders and Investors?
Commodity traders should prepare for higher volatility around the release of the FOMC minutes.
Gold and silver remain sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, while crude oil prices will continue tracking geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
For investors, the coming week could determine whether the recent rally across precious metals marks the beginning of a sustained uptrend or merely a short-lived recovery before the next major macroeconomic trigger.
