State Bank of India (SBI) is scheduled to announce its April-June quarter (Q1 FY27) results later on Friday, August 7, with the Central Board meeting followed by an analyst call at 5:15 PM at State Bank Bhavan Auditorium in Mumbai. India’s largest lender enters the print with strong loan growth intact, but most brokerages expect standalone net profit to fall year-on-year for a second straight quarter, weighed down by margin pressure and elevated deposit costs. The trading window for designated persons has stayed closed since July 1 and will reopen 48 hours after the results are declared.
PAT And NII: What Brokerages Expect
Based on an average of six brokerage estimates, SBI’s Q1 FY27 profit after tax (PAT) could decline around 4 per cent year-on-year (YoY). Individual estimates vary more sharply:
- Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) expects PAT to fall nearly 10 per cent YoY and around 13 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) on slower income growth. It sees net interest income (NII) rising about 10 per cent YoY despite 17 per cent YoY loan growth, as higher cost of funds eats into gains.
- Axis Direct pegs the PAT decline at a milder 5.7 per cent YoY, with NII growth estimated at 12.2 per cent YoY as advances growth holds at 17-18 per cent.
- Equentis Research expects NII to rise around 13 per cent YoY, broadly in line with the above.
For context, SBI’s standalone PAT stood at ₹19,160 crore in Q1 FY26 (up 12.5 per cent YoY) and ₹19,684 crore in Q4 FY26 (up 5.6 per cent YoY). Applying the brokerage range to the ₹19,160 crore base implies Q1 FY27 PAT could land anywhere between roughly ₹17,250 crore and ₹18,390 crore.
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Net Interest Margin: The Key Swing Factor
NIM stays the most-watched number this quarter after a sharp sequential fall in Q4 FY26, when domestic NIM slipped to 2.93 per cent (down 18 bps sequentially) and whole-bank NIM fell to 2.81 per cent.
- Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) expects NIM to hold at 2.84 per cent in Q1 FY27, helped by term deposit repricing and better corporate spreads.
- Systematix Institutional Equities expects cost of funds and yield on assets to stay stable, keeping NIM broadly flat, without giving an exact number.
- Mirae Asset Sharekhan is more constructive, expecting NIM to improve as the earlier repo-rate-cut impact gets largely absorbed, with pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) seen rising 13 per cent QoQ on controlled opex.
SBI has guided for domestic NIM above 3 per cent in FY27 — a mark it has missed for two straight quarters.
Credit And Deposit Growth
Loan growth remains the bright spot. MOFSL projects 3.1 per cent sequential credit growth, led by SME, corporate, agri and Xpress Credit, alongside a healthy corporate pipeline in infrastructure, renewables and data centres. System-wide non-food bank credit grew 18.3 per cent YoY by June 2026, running ahead of SBI’s own FY27 guidance of 13-15 per cent; full-year FY26 advances growth was 16.87 per cent.
Deposit growth, however, is expected to trail credit growth, flagged by both Axis Direct and MOFSL, which could keep funding costs elevated and cap a sharp NIM recovery.
Asset Quality And Provisions
No fresh stress is expected in the loan book. KIE estimates slippages at around 1.1 per cent of loans, calling it a normalisation rather than a red flag, with recoveries and upgrades likely moderating too. It sees provisions rising 20.7 per cent YoY to ₹5,744.3 crore.
Axis Direct expects credit costs to inch up on seasonal factors with no visible challenge to asset quality. SBI’s FY26 credit cost stood at 0.37 per cent, well inside its ~50 bps FY27 guidance, and the FY26 slippage ratio of 0.54 per cent was inside the bank’s sub-0.6 per cent target. Gross NPA ratio stood at 1.49 per cent as of Q4 FY26, down from 1.82 per cent a year earlier.
Treasury Gains And Other Monitorables
A roughly 40 bps decline in 10-year G-Sec yields during the quarter should support treasury income, potentially reversing the ₹4,520 crore mark-to-market treasury loss booked in Q4 FY26. Other monitorables: pace of the ECL (Expected Credit Loss) framework transition, FCNR deposit mobilisation, and the CET-1 capital impact of the SBI Funds Management IPO listing in July 2026. Government current account deposits fell 21 per cent in FY26, a gap SBI needs to offset via non-government CA growth.
SBI Share Price Ahead of Q1 Results
SBI shares closed at ₹1,085 on the NSE and ₹1,084.85 on the BSE on August 6, up 2.84 per cent from the previous close of ₹1,055, with the stock swinging between an intraday low of ₹1,052.50 and a high of ₹1,088.10. Market capitalisation stood at roughly ₹10,01,500 crore, against a 52-week range of ₹790 to ₹1,234.70.
In early trade on results day (August 7), the stock was seen around ₹1,080, up about 2.4 per cent. Among brokerages tracked, Motilal Oswal has a target price of ₹1,300, Systematix ₹1,250, and Mirae Asset Sharekhan ₹1,200 on the stock. These are third-party brokerage views, not a NiftyTrader recommendation.
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NiftyTrader Desk View
| Metric | Q1 FY26 (Actual) | Q4 FY26 (Actual) | Q1 FY27 (Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standalone PAT | ₹19,160 crore | ₹19,684 crore | Down ~4-10% YoY |
| NII | ₹41,072 crore | ₹44,380 crore | Up ~10-13% YoY |
| NIM (Whole bank) | 2.90% | 2.81% | ~2.84% (MOFSL est.) |
| NIM (Domestic) | 3.02% | 2.93% | Guided above 3% |
| Gross advances growth (YoY) | 11.61% | 16.9% | 17-18% |
| Gross NPA ratio | 1.83% | 1.49% | Broadly stable |
Source: Business Standard, Motilal Oswal, Kotak Institutional Equities, Axis Direct, Systematix, Mirae Asset Sharekhan, CompoundingAI, SBI exchange filings
Track live FII-DII activity ahead of Q1 earnings season on the NiftyTrader FII-DII Tracker: niftytrader.in/fii-dii-data
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Brokerage estimates and target prices cited belong to the respective firms and are not endorsed by NiftyTrader. Investors are advised to consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Securities market investments are subject to market risks.
